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National Weather Service
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 15 2026
...Threat of multi-day heavy rain/flooding appears to lessen midweek across the east-central U.S. into the South but widespread severe weather remains a concern through Thursday...
...Pattern Overview...
A lingering and weakening closed low moving into the Southern Plains on Wednesday will phase with stronger northern stream troughing digging into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This drives a strong cold front into the East through Thursday with widespread rainfall and possible severe weather ahead of it, and wintry precipitation from the Great Lakes to the Interior Northeast. An Atmospheric River remains on track to bring moderate to heavy precipitation into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and Thursday followed by a clipper system to bring high wind threats across the Rockies into the High Plains much of the period. Another shortwave looks to dig into the north-central U.S. by the end of the weekend.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Models continue to show good agreement on the large scale pattern through the entire period, but with some differences in the individual details. Some differences in the timing of the southern stream shortwave phasing with northern stream energy remains in question, which would impact the speed of the frontal boundary through the East. After this, another shortwave will move across the Great Lakes with a fairly deep surface low. There are some differences in the exact placement of this surface low, but generally models have trended deeper with this system. A third shortwave into the Northwest may deepen over the north-central U.S. next weekend with the CMC notably flatter with the flow than the GFS and ECMWF.
Good agreement early in the period led to a deterministic model blend Days 3-5 for the surface progs and 500mb charts. Transitioned towards 60 percent ensemble means by day 7 to mitigate some of the smaller scale differences.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Heavy rainfall over the Central U.S. will be ongoing at the start of the period on Wednesday along and ahead of an initially slow moving frontal boundary. With some training potential still on Wednesday, maintained a marginal risk on the Day 4/Wednesday Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley. SPC is also highlighting severe weather potential in a similar region. Rainfall will then expand into the eastern U.S. ahead of the main cold front on Thursday, but the overall flood threat looks limited as the frontal boundary should be much more progressive by that time. Some snow or wintry mix is possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield from the Great Lakes into the interior Northeast, and possibly as far south as the interior northern Mid- Atlantic.
A couple of shortwaves should keep the Pacific Northwest wet through much of the period. The heaviest rainfall should be associated with an Atmospheric River entering the region Wednesday. Heavy snows are possible in the higher elevations, with even some light rain/snow mix possible at lower elevations into Wednesday as temperatures could be cold enough in the mornings. Given increasing model QPFs and high moisture anomalies, did go ahead introducing a marginal risk on the Wednesday ERO for western Washington and far northwest Oregon. Precipitation should continue into Thursday but lessen in intensity.
Deep systems and tight pressure gradients will support high winds, especially for the Northwest-Rockies-High Plains during the latter half of next week. Gusty winds may also accompany the cold front as it slides through the Midwest and into the East mid to late week and with an additional cyclone across the Great Lakes next weekend.
A significant springtime warm-up is expected ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast with daytime highs 20 to 30 degrees above normal with daily widespread records in the forecasts. Values should moderate back towards normal by Thursday and Friday following the frontal passage. Above normal temperatures are also expected to expand with time across the Southwest into the Plains and the South with below normal temperatures across the far northern tier.
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