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National Weather Service
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026
...Lower elevation coastal/valley rain and high elevation snow continues for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies...
...Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger across the Southeast with a severe weather threat for the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday...
...Above to well above average temperatures across most of the country will continue this weekend and into early next week...
An energetic upper pattern and consistent flow of Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will keep lower elevation coastal/valley rain and high elevation snow in the forecast the next couple of days. A more potent system reaching the region today will bring heavier precipitation amounts compared to the past couple of days, especially into the mountains, where locally heavy snow will be possible particularly on Monday. This pattern looks to continue beyond the current forecast period through the week with an Atmospheric River expected on Wednesday. To the east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue ahead of a cold front stretching from the Carolinas west through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into southern Texas. While the risk is lower compared to prior days, some moderate to locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will remain possible, particularly closer to the Gulf Coast. The boundary will continue to linger into Monday, likely beginning to retreat back northward a bit with increased moist southerly flow from the Gulf. Shower and thunderstorm chances will focus across the Tennessee Valley west to the ArkLaTex, with higher instability and sufficient shear bringing a chance for some more robust thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for portions of the ArkLaTex east into the Lower Mississippi Valley mainly for the threat of large hail. Some isolated flash flooding will remain possible as well. Merging energies in the upper-levels will bring a more widespread threat for severe weather and flash flooding from the Midwest to the Plains Tuesday.
An upper-level shortwave will begin to dive southward across the northern tier of the U.S. Monday, bringing a clipper-like low pressure/frontal system across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A light wintry mix will be possible in the colder air following the passage of the system later Monday into early Tuesday. The passage of this deepening surface low will also help to bring very gusty winds along the northern Rockies Sunday, with gusts upwards of 80s mph possible. An upper-low lingering off the Pacific Coast will begin to shift eastward later Sunday into Monday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the Desert Southwest. Warm, dry, and gusty downsloping winds off the Rockies across portions of the southern High Plains has prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday.
A mild early March will continue across the country this weekend and into early next week as most everyone will see above to well above average temperatures. For the central to eastern U.S., the greatest anomalies will shift south and eastward each day ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs into the 60s and 70s for the northern Plains/Upper Midwest Sunday and more broadly across the central Plains into the Midwest Monday are upwards of 25-35 degrees above average, and numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs will be possible. Warmer conditions will also focus along the East Coast, a reprieve especially for the Mid-Atlantic/New England where colder air has been slower to erode. Forecast highs Sunday-Monday range in the 50s and 60s for New England, the 60s and 70s for the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, and the 80s south into Florida. While not quite as anomalous, highs will also remain above average across the southern tier, with 70s and 80s from the southern Plains east into the Southeast. The aforementioned cold front will begin to bring some cooler more seasonable temperatures to the northern tier, with highs dropping into the 30s and 40s across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest Monday. Conditions across the western U.S. will also be mostly above average Sunday, with highs in the 50s and 60s for the Interior West, 60s and 70s in California, and 70s and 80s into the Desert Southwest. An upper-low meandering closer to the Southwest will bring some cooler highs to the Deserts Monday, with temperatures only into the 70s. The Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies will be cooler and below average as a cold front passes through the region, with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s.
Putnam