Ra7dio3 Report
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Aug 28 2025
...Scattered areas of flash flooding remain possible across pockets of the Intermountain West through Wednesday...
...Rounds of heavy rainfall are anticipated across portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, into the Mid-South through Thursday...
...The Pacific Northwest will be hot again today; cool conditions for late August expected mainly east of the Rockies....
Out West, through Thursday, monsoonal moisture, diurnal heating, and upper-level impulses will produce showers and thunderstorms over portions of the West. Slight Risks of excessive rainfall/flash flooding exist across portions of the Southwest on Tuesday and Idaho/northern Utah today and Wednesday. The main concern is flooding of dry washes/arroyos, urban areas, burn scars, and box canyons due to scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms that are most active late afternoon into the early evening hours. From late Tuesday into Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and become more numerous across the northern Great Basin to the northern/central Rockies due to the arrival of a slow-moving upper trough. Meanwhile, warm core ridging across the Northwest will aid and abet a heat wave across Northwest continuing today before losing its grip on Wednesday. Daily record highs will once again be challenged this afternoon as temperatures soar to near 100F at the hottest locations. This heat will be dangerous, posing a threat to anyone without effective cooling and adequate hydration. In addition, there will be little nighttime relief from the extreme heat, with overnight lows remaining well above normal. Stay informed and take steps to protect yourself from heat-related illnesses. For information on staying cool and safe, visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat.
From portions of the High Plains through the Plains into the Mid-South, elevated convection with heavy rainfall north of a front will develop at times over parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Mid-South through Thursday with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall depicted over portions of these areas. Hourly amounts to 2.5" would be problematic in urban areas. Swaths of heavy rain each day are expected to increase soil saturation over time, making areas increasingly sensitive to further heavy rainfall. Across portions of Kansas/Oklahoma, the ArkLaTex and Red River Valley of the South on Tuesday, and into Kansas on Wednesday, and in and near northern Arkansas Thursday, highs may only reach into the 60s and 70s threatening record cold high temperatures for the dates as rainfall holds down daytime temperatures.
East of the Rockies and north of the Gulf Coast, large swaths of below average temperatures are expected to prevail, with temperatures more reminiscent of early fall than late summer under the aegis of strong high pressure (by August standards). Cool to cold conditions are expected overnight from the Gulf Coast northward, with resplendent sunshine during the day over portions of the Midwest, Appalachians, and much of the East today and Wednesday, and across much of the Ohio Valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. This morning, temperatures should start off in the 40s and 50s across portions of the Midwest, Kentucky, and the southern Appalachians, threatening record lows. Temperatures dip into the 40s and 50s across the east-central U.S. threaten low temperature records from across the Midwest to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Mid-South Wednesday morning. On Thursday morning, record lows would be possible at several sites from the Mid-Atlantic States into the Ohio Valley, Southern Appalachians, and Gulf Coast as temperatures fall into the 50s and 60s. Near and east of the Great Lakes, cool air at the surface and aloft triggers lake-effect and lake-enhanced showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday downstream of mild to warm lakes; activity becomes more numerous as a reinforcing front moves through late Wednesday into Thursday.
Roth/Kong